The USDA significantly increased its estimate for 2025-’26 soybean oil use in biofuel production in its latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report, released July 11. The outlook for soybean production was revised down.
The current 2025-’26 soybean outlook is for slightly lower production, higher crush, reduced exports, and increased ending stocks compared to last month. Soybean production is projected at 4.3 billion bushels, down 5 million from last month on lower harvested acres and an unchanged yield of 52.5 bushels per acre.
The U.S. soybean crush for 2025-’26 is raised 50 million bushels to 2.54 billion, supported by higher demand for soybean oil for biofuel.
The USDA currently predicts 15.5 billion pounds of soybean oil will go to biofuel production for 2025-’26, up from last month’s outlook of 13.9 billion pounds. An estimated 12.25 billion pound of soybean oil went to biofuel production for 2024-’25, up from 13.989 billion pounds for 2023-’24.
According to the USDA, the current outlook for soybean use in biofuel production assumes the U.S. EPA’s proposed rule for Renewable Fuel Standard volumes for 2026 and 2027 when evaluating soybean oil demand. That proposal would not only significantly increase the mandates for biobased diesel, but would also reduce the number of renewable identification numbers (RINs) generated for imported renewable fuels and renewable fuels produced form foreign feedstocks. If realized, those changes are expected to increase demand for domestically produced feedstocks, like soybean oil.
Given higher domestic demand for biofuel, soybean oil imports are raised and exports are reduced. Soybean oil in the residual category, including food, feed and other industrial use, is unchanged.
With higher soybean prices supporting crush margins and higher crush in 2025-’26, soybean meal production is raised 1.2 billion short tons. Domestic disappearance is increased 500,000 short tons to 41.8 million, a 3% increase over the prior year. The export forecast is raised 700,000 short tons to 18.7 million.
U.S. soybean exports for 2025-‘26 are lowered 70 million bushels to 1.75 billion on higher U.S. domestic demand, higher exports for Argentina and Ukraine, and larger Brazilian supplies at the end of September during the U.S. peak export season. With lower U.S. soybean exports partly offset by higher crush, ending stocks are increased 15 million bushels to 310 million. The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2025-‘26 is projected at $10.10 per bushel, down 15 cents from last month. The soybean meal price is lowered $20 to $290 per short ton and the soybean oil price is raised 7 cents to 53 cents per pound.
Global soybean supply and demand forecasts for 2025-‘26 include higher supply, increased crush, lower exports, and higher ending stocks. Beginning stocks are raised on trade revisions in the prior marketing year. Higher beginning stocks for Brazil are partly offset by lower stocks for China, Mexico, and Ukraine. Global soybean production is raised on higher production for Ukraine based on observed government planting progress data. Global crush is raised 1.1 million tons to 367.7 million. Crush is raised for the United States, Ukraine, and Turkey, but lowered for India, Mexico, and Saudi Arabia. As a result of higher global soybean crush, global soybean meal trade is raised this month with higher imports for Colombia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Mexico, and Vietnam. Global soybean exports are lowered as reduced U.S. exports are partly offset by higher exports for Argentina and Ukraine. Imports are lowered for India, Mexico, and Saudi Arabia. Global soybean ending stocks are increased 800,000 tons to 126.1 million on higher stocks.
